As I discussed in an earlier post, the coast of Southwest Florida from Tampa Bay to the Everglades is a “Forbidden Zone” for surface-based transport of ocean water to the coast, and is probably not at risk from this week’s Loop Current oil. The northwest coast of Cuba east of Havana and the coast of Southeast Florida from the Keys to West Palm Beach are at the most risk. The western shores of the western-most Bahama Islands and the U.S. coast north of West Palm Beach northwards to Cape Hatteras are at slight risk. It would likely take ocean eddies 2 – 9 weeks to transport the oil to these locations, and the oil would probably be so dilute that ecosystem damage would probably be minor, at most. At this point, I see no reason for cancellation of vacation plans to any of the beach areas that may potentially be affected by the oil.
There are other models,
A new computer model also forecast black oil ringing the Florida peninsula next week, stoking fears for the state’s tourism industry that fallout from the massive BP oil spill had reached the Sunshine State.
I haven’t found the model yet, but I’ll update when I do. The discrepancy in models shouldn’t shock anyone. We know more about the moon than the oceans.
The information on the plumes is upbeat as far as them moving anywhere to affect beaches and fishing on the Florida coast, as is the surface modeling.
Overlooked in much, if not all, of the reporting is the dead zone, which adds another element of complexity to the legal brouhaha that is sure to follow, so we may all be in for an a diverse education in marine science and maritime law. That is an easy conclusion.
There is something sinister about the CBS reporters not be allowed into the marshland, but boat wakes can push the oil further into the march if they aren’t handled correctly. If you go, treat it like a no wake zone so you’re not part of the problem.
I haven’t seen anything on the Necropsy of sea turtles dying after BP’s Gulf oil spill under gag order, so this adds to the perception that there is a lot CYA and BS going on in the official reporting of the investigation. Worst case scenario thinking should be avoided, but the government(s) are hurting the people along the coast whose livings depend on knowing whether it is safe to fish, eat and play on the Gulf Coast. BP can keep the cash spent for ads by revealing the truth.